Sensitivity analysis
| Sensitivity variable | Net cost (saving) £ pp/pa | ICER £/QALY |
|---|---|---|
| Base case | 553 | 8998 |
| 1. Treatment costs | ||
| National reference costs by service description 2012/13 | 687 | 11 170 |
| Reimbursement tariff 2014/15 | 929 | 15 108 |
| National reference costs spell data 2012/13 | 401 | 6515 |
| 2. Severity of condition | ||
| Top quartile by treatment cost per episode | (151) | Dominant |
| Second quartile by treatment cost per episode | 524 | 8527 |
| Third quartile by treatment cost per episode | 822 | 13 365 |
| Bottom quartile by treatment cost per episode | 973 | 15 829 |
| 3. Inpatient events | ||
| Increased inpatient visit frequency | (142) | Dominant |
| 4. Length of inpatient stay | ||
| Pathway mix long: short stay 50:50 | 687 | 11 163 |
| Pathway mix include discharge from A&E | 840 | 13 656 |
| 5. Intention to treat | 640 | 10 400 |
| 6. Incidence of inpatient admissions without reported exacerbation | 590 | 9588 |
| 7. QALY value | ||
| 55% increase in QALY | 553 | 5800 |
| 55% decrease in QALY | 553 | 20 000 |
| 8. ‘Least cost-effective’ scenario | 1161 | 18 883 |
A&E, accident and emergency; ICER, incremental cost-effectiveness ratio; pp aa, per patient per annum; QUALY, quality-adjusted life year.