LC (n) | Without LC (n) | Total (n) | Predictive value | |
Population | 149 | 3902 | 4051 | |
‘Reduced’ HUNT* | ||||
Criteria positive | 148 TP (3.77%) | 3773 FP (96.23%) | 3921 | PPV 3.77% |
Criteria negative | 1 FN (0.77%) | 129TN (99.23%) | 130 | NPV 99.23% |
Sensitivity | 99.33% | |||
Specificity | 3.31% | |||
NLST† | ||||
Criteria positive | 104 TP (5.56%) | 1766 FP (94.44%) | 1870‡ | PPV 5.56% |
Criteria negative | 45 FN (2.06%) | 2136 TN (97.94%) | 2181 | NPV 97.94% |
Sensitivity | 69.80% | |||
Specificity | 54.74% | |||
NELSON§ | ||||
Criteria positive | 141 TP (4.08%) | 3449 FP (96.07%) | 3590 | PPV 4.08 % |
Criteria negative | 8 FN (1.71%) | 461 TN (98.29%) | 469 | NPV 98.29% |
Sensitivity | 94.63% | |||
Specificity | 11.79% | |||
NELSON2¶ | ||||
Criteria positive | 141 TP (4.20%) | 3209 FP (95.79%) | 3350 | PPV 4.20 % |
Criteria negative | 8 FN (1.14%) | 693 TN (98.29%) | 701 | NPV 98.85% |
Sensitivity | 94.63% | |||
Specificity | 17.76% |
*‘Reduced’ HUNT model criteria.
†NLST criteria (: >30 pack years of smoking, <15 years since quitting and ages between 55 and 74 years).
‡Total criteria positive selected by the ‘Reduced’ HUNT model includes those picked by the NLST.
§NELSON criteria age 50–75, >15 cigarettes a day >25 years, or >10 cigarettes a day >30 years, both with 10 or less years quit time.
¶NELSON2 criteria >10 cigarettes a day >30 years, both with 10 or less years quit time.
FN, false negative; FP, false positive; NPV, negative predictive value; PPV, positive predictive value; TN, true negative; TP, true positive.