Direct comparison of the ‘Reduced’ HUNT model against NELSON criteria, for the same number of individuals (n=1668), on the control group of DLCST. The HUNT model shows increased predictive performance in all metrics (sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV)
| LC (N) | Without LC (N) | Total (N) | Predictive value | |
| Population | 52 | 1 947 | 1999 | |
| ‘Reduced’ HUNT* | ||||
| Criteria positive | 50 TP (3.00%) | 1618 FP (97.00%) | 1668† | PPV 3.00% |
| Criteria negative | 2 FN (0.60%) | 329 TN (99.40%) | 331 | NPV 99.40% |
| Sensitivity | 96.15% | |||
| Specificity | 16.90% | |||
| NELSON‡ | ||||
| Criteria positive | 47 TP (2.82%) | 1621 FP (97.18%) | 1668* | PPV 2.82% |
| Criteria negative | 5 FN (1.51%) | 326 TN (98.45%) | 331 | NPV 98.45% |
| Sensitivity | 90.38% | |||
| Specificity | 16.74% |
‘Reduced’ HUNT model.
*‘Reduced’ HUNT model criteria.
†The number of those picked by the NELSON, but with the top risk score by the ‘Reduced’ HUNT model.
‡NELSON criteria age 50–75, >15 cigarettes a day >25 years, or >10 cigarettes a day >30 years, both with 10 or less years quit time.
FN, false negative; FP, false positive; NPV, negative predictive value; PPV, positive predictive value; TN, true negative; TP, true positive.